If you are interested in knowing if it is time to buy a diamond, read this article. Because you will be surprised by the discovery that diamonds are excellent stones for a jewel, but future epochal changes are expected. This is affirmed by an authoritative report by Bain & Company, one of the world’s leading consulting companies, in association with the World Diamond Center in Antwerp.
Bain & C’s analysis is fierce: diamond sales have fallen a lot. In particular, the forecasts indicate that for 2019 the sale of rough diamonds should fall by 25% and those of polished stones ready to be set on a ring or necklace are estimated to have fallen by 10%.
Furthermore, the analysis by Bain & C arrives at the same time as the announcement by Anglo American, the parent company of the De Beers group. The company said diamond sales were down 26% in 2019 and lowered production targets in the near future. De Beers, by 2019, is expected to have extracted about 31 million carats of diamonds, down 11% compared to 35 million last year. And prices have fallen by around 20%.
In short, the world is asking for fewer diamonds: a decline that is driven by consumer changes in the two largest markets, the United States and China, with retail sales falling due to the decline in consumer confidence and geopolitical uncertainty. But in the long run the situation could be different. In fact, Bain & Company provides a positive outlook for the coming years.
Despite several short-term challenges, we expect a positive result for the long-term diamond market. First of all, however, the industry must overcome some uncertainties in 2019 and 2020, due to the continuing geopolitical instability, the strong signs of an imminent recession and limited support for marketing, in particular for jewelery without brand and range low. On the other hand, it is expected that the luxury branded diamond jewelery segment, which represents about 15% of the total diamond jewelery market, will perform well, growing at high figures, in line with the growth of personal luxury.
Olya Linde, partner of Bain & Company and lead author of the report
Retail sales
According to the report, retail sales of diamond jewelry in the United States are expected to fall by 2% in 2019, in contrast to the 3% growth in 2018. And there are three main reasons for the decline. First of all, consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest point since 2016 due to uncertainties in the labor market, commercial tension and a possible recession. Second, the continuing decline of Chinese tourists in the United States has reduced luxury purchases overall. Third, an additional 15% rate on Chinese jewelry came into effect in September 2019 and could affect sales during the holiday season.
Last year the Chinese market, including Hong Kong, grew by 4%. In 2019, that trend was reversed. The Chinese market should decline by 5% if calculated in US dollars. The shift is attributed to the depreciation of the yuan, the decline in consumer confidence due to the commercial tension between the United States and China, and significantly lower sales in Hong Kong due to protests shaking the former British colony.
In India, the diamond jewelery market declined by 1% in 2018 following the devaluation of the rupee and the failure of the large jewelry retailer Gitanjali. In 2019, sales should return to a 3% growth due to increased customer confidence, a growing number of working women and a shift from preferences to bargains to everyday jewelery only.
In 2019, performance in Europe was adversely affected by political uncertainty in the United Kingdom and by gilets jaunes unrest in France, but this was partially offset by increased spending by tourists in the euro area. Diamond sales are expected to remain stable in 2019 in Japan due to lower consumer confidence and lower spending by Chinese tourists.
The trends
In 2018, global production fell by 3% to 147 million carats, but after 2017, a record year of production. The production increase of 26 million carats in 2017 was the largest since 1986 and has created a surplus that has affected the entire value chain. As a result, inventories in the mining and medium-sized markets also increased for 2019. Prices and revenues fell in both segments in 2019 despite only a slight reduction in consumer demand. In 2019, sales of assortments moved to smaller stones, which also helped reduce sales. And in 2019, production is expected to drop by a further 4 percent.
According to the Bain report, there are four trends for the diamond market:
1 Rapid growth of online sales channels between 5 and 10%. Also because the share of diamond jewelry sales online is lagging behind other consumer products. However, jewelery e-commerce is accelerating and major retailers in the US and China have increased their online sales by 13 and 11% respectively.
2 Marketing expenses will increase. Companies in the sector have increased their efforts and budgets. In 2019, over 200 million dollars were invested in the marketing of the diamond industry, ranging from 70 to 80 million dollars channeled through the Diamond Producers Association.
3 More diamonds created in the laboratory: in 2018 and 2019 the production of laboratory-grown diamonds increased from 15 to 20%. Most come from China. With the evolution of the laboratory diamond market, different business models are emerging. Chinese companies mainly use high-pressure and high-temperature (HPHT) technologies to produce rough diamonds, competing on the lowest production cost. In the United States, companies are pursuing a vertically integrated business model by selling premium brand jewelry.
4 Greater attention to the environment and sustainability: both consumers and investors require more transparent and environmentally friendly practices. Multiple industry initiatives are focused on transparency and traceability, which could increase the trust of both lenders and consumers.
