It’s time to analyze the trend of gold. The fear of international crises had pushed the price and many were already wondering if the yellow metal would shine again. But no: gold has seen its prices return below 1,290 dollars an ounce for the first time in over a month. Not only that: according to experts, it could fall below 1,286 dollars and then plummet again. The investment bank Goldman Sachs is convinced that the journey will be tough: in a note it reiterated its forecast of a fall to 1,050 dollars by the end of the year. Gold, in short, is destined to become less expensive, despite having gained 10% in the first half of the year. Among the causes of the decline are consumption (see: that in Asia in particular, which is now the main driver of gold demand.
The China Gold Association has released data that have frozen expectations: Chinese demand for gold in the first half of the year fell by 19 percent. The sale of bars and ingots fell by 62 percent, that of coins by 44 percent. Even though jewelry and industrial purchases have instead risen by 11 percent. According to the World Gold Council, since 2004, when Beijing allowed private individuals to invest in gold, to 2013 the demand for bars and coins in China has risen from 10 to 397 tons. But in June, gold imports to China fell for the fourth month and were the lowest since January 2013. Even those who were hoping for a recovery in imports to India will be disappointed. The new Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not reduced the heavy duties on the yellow metal.
