The “Affari & Finanza” supplement of Repubblica dedicates an alarmed article to the gold district of Arezzo. Which, according to the newspaper, has seen jewelry exports plummet by 40% in just a few months. A debacle that, however, is viewed with less anxiety by some, who maintain that we are simply returning to the levels of a few years ago. Cautious, but worried, is also the new president of Federorafi, Luciana Ciabatti, who indicates the way to recover: the countries where wealth is increasing, such as Indonesia, Thailand, Mexico. Will it be enough? Here is the article by Maurizio Bolognini.
The best customers of Arezzo goldsmiths are retreating, but old and new buyers are coming to the rescue. In the third quarter of 2014 – but the negative trend continues – the subjects of the United Arab Emirates, who in 2013 had bought almost half of the gold jewelry exported by the Arezzo district for a value of 1 billion euros, cut their purchases by 40% compared to the previous year. And the Algerians, second customers, have stopped shopping. A hemorrhage. Offset by the growth of Hong Kong (+27% in the first nine months of 2014) and by the return of the Americans, on whom the district is counting to restart. In the early 2000s they grabbed 35% of Arezzo exports, now only 9%, but there is hope in the appreciation of the dollar against the currency, in the expected abolition of the duty on gold (at 5.8%) and in the hunger for luxury of the Americans, who in 2014 increased their jewelry consumption by 77%.
However, the jump from one market to another is not trivial. A quick style update is needed: from voluminous, baroque, ethnic shapes, popular with Arabs and Africans, to objects with modern, essential, stylised lines, of Western taste. “We must react and not suffer events, revisit and relaunch the Italian lifestyle”, urges Luciana Ciabatti, administrator of the Arezzo-based Italpreziosi and since 26 January national president of Federorafi Confindustria. The detail, first of all, of the frightening backtracking in the third quarter of 2014, when the value of exports of Arezzo goldsmiths fell to 382.4 million from 504.9 in the same period of the previous year. The United Arab Emirates have therefore reduced purchases by 39.6%. Algerians have cut shopping by 99.2%, which in 2013 had been pushed to 169.3 million euros by favourable duties. And then -14.4% Turkey, which is the third market. China also did badly (-91%) as a result of the anti-corruption crackdown. A Caporetto, in short.
Fluctuations in the value of raw materials, political instability in Middle Eastern countries and lastly the collapse in the price of oil are the main causes of the flight, which has continued until today, of Middle Eastern customers. This has put in difficulty an economic fabric made up of 1,197 companies that employ 8,000 people (19,000 with related industries) and export for 2 billion euros. However, the district monitor of Banca Cr Firenze avoids dramatizations. “The decline is basically a physiological decline compared to the brilliant results recorded during 2013 – he explains – when the drop in the price of gold and the good economic conditions had caused the demand for jewelry to explode. Arezzo’s exports to the United Arab Emirates are returning to 2011-2012 levels and it is unlikely that they will recover: the complex geopolitical situation in the Middle East seems to be constantly worsening and spending capacity will begin to tighten further». This is in line with the analysis of Luca Benvenuti, CFO of Unoaerre, a historic jewelry industry in Arezzo, which in 2014 can boast exports that went against the trend, with a plus sign and double digits, after having reconnected with foreign markets that had been neglected during the years of corporate crisis. «Until August – he explains – purchases were discouraged by the growth in the price of gold. Afterwards, until mid-November, the value of the precious metal fell from 1,300 to 1,140 dollars an ounce, but tensions in the Middle East have slowed buyers. The problem is that from mid-November to now there have been other negative shocks: oil has fallen further and gold has returned to 1,300 euros an ounce».
Yet there are also positive signs. The first is that after more than 15 consecutive years of decline in Italian gold production, 2014 marked a reversal of the trend, going from 62.6 tons in 2013 to 86.4. Exports from other Italian districts seem to have benefited from this trend, and in the face of declining global demand for jewelry, particularly Valenza (+23.7% in the third quarter), which are less unbalanced towards Middle Eastern markets than Tuscany, and so for Arezzo it has become mandatory to diversify its outlets. In the US, hopes are now focused on the elimination of duties, which should lead, by itself, to an immediate increase in exports of 20%, for over 1 billion euros.
