Data from the Intesa San Paolo-Goldsmiths’ Club economic survey on the jewelry sector.
War in the Middle East. Gold prices remain sky-high. The economy is uncertain. How will all this impact the jewelry world? This is the question Intesa Sanpaolo’s analysis, presented during the meeting organized by the Goldsmiths’ Club as part of Oroarezzo, attempts to answer. The final answer to this question, according to the survey of industry professionals, is influenced by the cost of the yellow metal (according to 68%), worsening domestic demand (60%), and geopolitical tensions (53%), further exacerbated by the conflict in Iran, which, according to the companies in the sample, has led to a reduction in jewelry consumption (68%), an increase in the cost of raw materials (43%), and a slowdown in international demand (33%).
According to the analysis presented, the war in Iran has negatively impacted both discretionary spending on jewelry and investment decisions in the sector: official data for the first quarter of 2026 show a significant contraction in global gold demand (-10%) driven by both a decline in global jewelry consumption (-24%), driven by record gold and silver prices, and purchases of gold-indexed investment funds, or ETFs (-65%).
Result: the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is significantly impacting gold price volatility and trade dynamics. After significant growth in recent years (+19% in 2022, +6% in 2023, and +4% in 2024), the Italian jewelry industry is expected to see a 5.0% decline in turnover in 2025 and a 13.8% decline in production. And the first two months of 2026 show an even more severe trend, with revenues down 10% and production down 29%. The Italian market is experiencing an increasingly polarized consumption environment, with an 89% increase in average monthly household spending on jewelry and watches between 2022 and 2024 for the fifth spending quintile, compared to a 47% decline for the lowest-spending consumers.
Exports are also slowing: in 2025, gold jewelry exports are expected to decline to €10.8 billion (-21%), but the slowdown in the Turkish market (which, due to Ankara’s fiscal policy, had experienced exceptional growth in 2024) is weighing heavily. Without this impact, the Turkish market would have grown 7.6%, with significant gains in Switzerland (+27.0%), Hong Kong (+9.7%), and Canada (+111.0%). Exports to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which represents a major hub for the jewelry industry, are also growing (+13%).
The eleventh joint Intesa San Paolo-Club degli Orafi survey also shows that, compared to the December edition, companies’ expectations for turnover are more conservative: the share of companies expecting a decline has increased from 34% to 63%. Investment expectations, however, have not been significantly revised: 23% of respondents stated they intend to increase their level of investment, compared to 30% in December. This figure is particularly significant because it confirms the sector’s awareness of the importance of investment to maintain high competitiveness and address the emerging challenges. Costs are particularly relevant, especially for raw materials, which was selected by 63% of the sample, followed by worsening domestic demand (60%) and, for more than half of the companies, geopolitical tensions (53%). These difficulties were further exacerbated by the conflict in Iran, which, due to uncertainty, primarily resulted in a reduction in jewelry consumption (68%), an increase in the cost of raw materials (43%), and a slowdown in international demand (33%). To effectively respond to these challenges, it will be essential to adopt appropriate strategies, which have been identified as seeking new business partners (51%), reviewing products (38%), and strengthening e-commerce (37%).
The results of the analysis were commented on by Laura Biason, general manager of the Club degli Orafi Italia, Daniela Corsini, senior economist in charge of commodity research at Intesa Sanpaolo’s Research Department, Stefania Trenti, head of Industry Research at Intesa Sanpaolo’s Research Department, Sara Giusti, economist at Intesa Sanpaolo’s Research Department, and Giordana Giordini, entrepreneur, partner of Giordini, and president of Confindustria Toscana Sud.
