Confindustria Federorafi and Intesa Sanpaolo survey on the performance of gold and the jewelry industry.
Yellow gold appears to be turning gray. According to data from the study presented by Confindustria Federorafi and Intesa Sanpaolo at Vicenzaoro, global demand for gold jewelry continues to decline: after an 18% decline in 2025, the first half of 2026 will see a further 21% decline in gold jewelry demand, particularly sharp in the Middle East, the United States, and Asia. The price of the metal, which peaked at $5,600 an ounce, although it has fallen slightly in recent months, is among the causes of the slowdown.
Sara Corsini, Senior Economist and Head of Commodity Research at Intesa Sanpaolo’s Research Department, offered an analysis of the macroeconomic scenario and its potential impact on precious metal prices, while Stefania Trenti, Head of Industry Research at Intesa Sanpaolo’s Research Department, presented data on the Italian gold sector. What are the forecasts emerging from the analysis? The cost of gold is expected to decline in the coming years, but prices are expected to remain above the 2025 average. This will have persistent effects on companies’ procurement costs.
Specifically, gold has fallen in price in recent months due to fears of possible interest rate increases (which would encourage more bond purchases as an alternative to gold) and the slowdown in central bank purchases in the early months of the Middle East conflict. As a result, in the first six months of the year, official sector purchases reached a four-year low, according to estimates from the World Gold Council.
This trend appears to be confirmed in the second half of the year: global gold demand fell 14% year-over-year, due to high prices, which caused a 17% decline in jewelry volumes. Financial investments in gold (bullion, coins, and funds) also fell 46%. According to the Intesa Sanpaolo study, gold could average around $4,200 an ounce in the coming months and reach an average of around $4,275 in 2027. This is lower than the highs reached at the end of January, but approximately 25% higher than the average prices recorded in 2025.
