News for those who love gold as an investment (and there are many). The price has fallen: it is appropriate to return to buy the yellow metal? And you keep in mind that the value of gold in the market is reflected sooner or later on the cost of the jewelry, so even if you do not plan to buy bullion, perhaps through an investment fund, you will be interested to know if in the next few months the price of ‘gold will rise or fall. For readers of Gioiellis publish exclusive analysis of one of the interesting banker: Nevine Pollini, senior commodities analyst at Union Bancaire Privée (UBP).
“We remain cautious on gold, since it seems stuck around 1180-1200 dollars per ounce, driven in opposite directions by two different forces: on the one hand there is the continuing uncertainty over the Greek debt crisis (positive factor for prices); on the other we find the strength of the dollar, supported by a series of positive macro data in the US (ISM manufacturing, construction spending and unemployment), it is increasing the expectations of a rise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve for this year, thus reducing the attractiveness of the yellow metal.
Last week, a downward revision by the International Monetary Fund estimates US growth for 2015 and its call for the Fed to delay the first rate hike in the first half of 2016 (until the appearance of increased signs of inflation ) did not have the slightest effect on the price of gold. The next meeting of the FOMC, scheduled for June 17, could provide clarity on the willingness of the Fed to implement a tight monetary policy later this year. However, as in the rest of the world other central banks, unlike the Fed, are maintaining expansionary monetary policies, these divergent trends are continuing to benefit the dollar and weigh on gold prices.
As for the Greek debt crisis, then, the country has been allowed to make all payments to the IMF in June in a lump sum, expiring on June 30. However, the risk of default was simply postponed and should reappear soon, probably triggering a buying haven assets. But until these events will continue to oppose, gold seems immune to both forces.
It ‘also interesting to note that the shares held by the ETFs continue to decline, with a total dropped to 51 million ounces, the lowest level since 2009. In addition, despite the recent market volatility, gold does not seem anyway able to regain its attractiveness as a safe haven.
At this point, the only salvation for gold prices could come from a considerable reduction in supply; also in this case, however, it will take time, because gold, unlike the base metals and the majority of the commodity, it is less sensitive to the performance of the offer, because of the amount of available stocks. It would require, in fact, two or three consecutive years of decline in output because come in a perception of scarcity and because this affects the sentiment on the yellow metal, creating a positive reaction on the prices of the same.”
Pepite d’oroIl prezzo dell’oro negli ultimi due anni
