The third quarter of 2026 marks a tentative recovery following months of continuous drops in the price per carat.
In recent years, natural diamonds have lost some of their value, pressured by competition from lab-grown stones. However, this decline may well have ended. The third quarter of 2026 was positive for the natural diamond market, according to a report by UNI Diamonds, a B2B marketplace. It should be noted that the company facilitates diamond trading and is, in short, part of the gemstone market business. Nevertheless, according to UNI Diamonds, after two quarters of downward price pressure, the natural diamond market as a whole recorded an uptick. The natural diamond index rose by 3%, with both round and fancy-shaped diamonds ending the quarter in positive territory.
“The increases were not exceptional, but that is precisely what makes the quarter significant,” the company’s analysts maintain. The most notable recovery was seen in smaller stones. Those in the 0.30 and 0.50-carat ranges saw significant price increases globally and in the United States, while 1-carat diamonds halted the downward trend observed in the first half of the year. Regarding higher weights, prices for 2-carat gems remained virtually unchanged, and 3-carat stones held their value.
US customs duties played a significant role. Prices became volatile following the decision on tariffs in late July, subsequently recovering during August and stabilizing in September. Greater clarity regarding the costs of importing goods into the United States has eliminated some of the uncertainty that had weighed on the market earlier in the year.
And what about lab-grown diamonds? According to the analysis, prices for lab-created stones continued to decline, though at a much slower pace than in the first and second quarters.
In conclusion
The natural diamond market has stopped retreating, and smaller stones have begun to recover, whereas the first half of the year was characterized by downward pressure on prices. During that period, the natural diamond index fell by 3.6% in the first quarter and by a further 3.27% in the second. In the third quarter, the natural diamond index rose by 3%, with round diamonds up 3.5% and fancy-shaped diamonds up 2.6%. The 0.30- and 0.50-carat categories saw some of the largest price increases of the quarter, both globally and in the United States.
