Message to investors: what if the price of gold falls further? Indeed, what if it continued to decline for much longer? According to some analysts, the yellow metal may have entered a bearish phase. It means that the decline of the last year is not (or would be) a temporary event, a price correction after years of rise but, on the contrary, a long-term trend. The “bear market”, as financial technicians say, is demonstrated by drops of 20% compared to price peaks. In short, for both gold and silver, dark times for those who have already purchased, while a favorable period for those who still want to invest in ingots and coins. Or, of course, jewellery, because in the medium term the gold used for jewelery should also fall a little (but not immediately). Gold and silver prices fell respectively to around 1,540 dollars an ounce, the lowest since last May, and to 26 dollars, the lowest since July. For bullion, the 20% drop compares to the record of September 2011, when 1,920 dollars per ounce were exceeded. Gfms, a specialized (and highly rated) consultancy company, even claims that after more than ten years of an upward trend, another decade (or almost) of decline is on the horizon. A little less pessimism about silver: the decline could be shorter, also because it is seen much less as a safe haven. Various factors could influence the decline: the need of some central bank to sell gold and, above all, the belief that we are not on the eve of sensational financial crashes, as was feared until a year and a half ago. So should we expect a slow but uninterrupted descent of the yellow metal? Not even this: gold could have some backlash this year and rise towards 1,850 dollars, especially if the euro returns to crisis. But according to experts, it would still be a temporary flare-up. Because the real bearish cycle will begin towards the end of 2013 or more likely in 2014. In short, we will see if the predictions are correct. What is certain, however, is that gold may drop in price, but its appeal will not decrease.
